Fewer athletes and fans for life

Most sports have seen a thinning of their pipeline. The percentage of children between the ages of 6 and 12 who played basketball, baseball, soccer, football, volleyball and wrestling on a regular basis has dropped since 2008 (Sports & Fitness Industry Association/Project Play.) While participation increased for most sports in 2021 compared to 2020, the numbers remain smaller in almost every sport than they were before the Great Recession in 2008.

Tennis and pickleball emerged as popular sports during COVID-19. Tennis was arguably the biggest success story during the pandemic, adding 679,000 youth ages 6-17 between 2019 and 2021 who played the sport on a regular basis, according to SFIA. There was 29% growth among kids ages 6-12 who played tennis regularly over that period. Pickleball attracted 462,000 more total participants among ages 6-17 between 2019 and 2021 – a staggering 83% increase. Pickleball is here to stay – it’s outdoors, very social, not that expensive, and easy to pick up regardless of athletic ability.

As the youth sports industry encourages families to focus their children on a limited number of sports, the total number of sports that each child plays annually has declined, from an average of 2.23 sports in 2008 to 1.67 in 2021 (Sports & Fitness Industry Association, 2021). In 2021, during the pandemic, the number of sports played slightly increased to 1.67. The longer term decline bears implications for sports leagues and media companies, as research shows people who participated in an organized sport are three times more likely to become an avid fan of that sport (researcher Rich Luker, 2017).

Parental unease

Caregivers are unsettled about the state of play. In the U.S., sport is widely recognized as a tool of child development and health promotion, with 75% of parents of children in middle or high school saying they encourage participation (NPR/Harvard/Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 2015). But 94% of parents say more needs to be done to protect their children's health and safety in youth sports (Kelton Research, American College of Sports Medicine, 2011). An espnW/Aspen Institute Project Play Survey of Parents shows concerns on a range of issues, coaching and injury risks above all. About a quarter of parents have considered keeping their child out of a sport due to concussion risks, with tackle football registering the greatest level of concern (ESPN, 2014).

Youth sports parents expressed more trust in their child’s coach than national, state and community leaders, and their child’s school, teachers and peers to develop life skills, foster a sense of belonging, create safe environments to play, help youth identify and cope with off-the-field stressors, and earn the child a college scholarship (State of Play 2022). However, two-thirds of coaches reported parents sometimes, often or always criticize the performance of their own child and the performance of game officials (National Coach Survey). Half of the coaches reported that parents criticize their child’s teammates or opposing players, and one-third report parents criticize their coaching.

Flag football has surpassed tackle in popularity among kids ages 6 to 12 who play on a regular basis. In State of Play 2023, we reported tackle football’s regular participation rate jumped 7% among children ages 6-12 in 2022, blunting a 13% loss since 2019, according to Sports & Fitness Industry Association. Flag football in that age range was about the same in 2022 as it was in 2019, with 277,000 more participants than tackle. Tackle in high schools experienced a one-year participation increase of 6% in 2022, nearly twice the post-COVID rebound of other sports, according to data from the National Federation of State High School Associations. Football is positioned for future growth with flag being added as an Olympic sport at the 2028 Los Angeles Games, along with baseball, softball, lacrosse, squash and cricket.

Demographic changes in the U.S. and parent fears of brain injuries have impacted tackle football, although it’s still very popular in parts of the country. The Aspen Institute wrote a paper in 2018 concluding that children, football and communities are likely to benefit if flag is the game’s standard before high school. The LA84 Foundation, one of the nation’s largest grantmakers, announced in 2018 it would no longer fund programs that offer tackle football below age 14. Some pediatricians refused to sign medical participation forms for children to play tackle due to risks associated with the game. Learn more about flag football.

Low physical activity rates into adolescence

Not enough children are active. The Physical Activity Alliance’s latest U.S. Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth showed another year of C and D grades (see grades below). The United States’ grade of a C for organized sport participation, while an improvement from past studies, was lower than 16 countries.Only Denmark measured an A. For physical activity in the school environment, the U.S. received a D- and ranked 51st out of 52 countries, despite all of the playgrounds, gyms and fields in our country. 

The body mass index for children during the first nine months of the pandemic approximately doubled compared to pre-pandemic data. There was a decrease in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and light physical activity during the pandemic, and an increase in sedentary time compared to previous years.

Starting at age 9 — when children often develop a self-concept of whether or not they are an athlete — physical activity rates begin to drop sharply. Physical literacy requires the development of more than motor skills. It’s also a matter of developing the mindset to use those skills. Yet, many are late in acquiring the fundamental movement skills that allow them to feel good about their competence to engage in sports and other activities. See the adjacent chart, based on research that identifies the age at which 60 percent of children were able to demonstrate proficiency in several basic movement skills (Seefeldt and Haubenstricker, 1982); the chart also notes the age at which experts say children require an “intervention,” or teaching effort, to help them develop a skill (Canadian Sport for Life).

By age 15, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity declines 75%, a higher rate than in Europe (Designed to Move, 2012). At that point, youth average only 49 minutes per weekday and 35 minutes per weekend (Journal of the American Medical Association, 2008). Among high school students, 27.1% say they met the recommendation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with one hour daily of activity (Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Study, 2015).

High obesity and overweight rates

Childhood obesity rates have nearly tripled. The percentage of children ages 6-11 who are classified as obese increased from 7% in 1980 to 17.5% in 2014. Among children ages 12 to 19, that figure grew from 5% to 20.5% (CDC, 2015). One in three children today is obese or overweight. Twenty-two percent of children and teens have been classified as obese during the coronavirus pandemic, an “alarming” increase from 19% before COVID-19, according to a 2021 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Another study found that among 17 developed nations, the U.S. had the highest rates of childhood obesity among those ages 5-19 (National Academy of Sciences, 2013). There are significant racial and ethnic disparities in obesity prevalence, with Hispanic and African American youth experiencing higher rates than white youth (CDC, 2015). While nutrition habits are a major factor in driving obesity, the level of physical activity that youth receive matters as well.

Military recruitment

More than a quarter of all Americans between the ages of 17 to 24 are too obese to serve in the military. Many are turned away by recruiters and others never try to join. Of those who attempt to join, roughly 15,000 fail their entrance physicals every year because they are overweight. Obesity rates among children and young adults have increased so dramatically that they threaten the future strength of our military (Too Fat to Fight, 2010).

Male recruits from Mobile County, Alabama, suffered training-related injuries at a rate of 21.2% — more than recruits from the rest of Alabama (17%) and the country (16%), according to a study by Daniel Bornstein at The Citadel (State of Play Mobile County report, 2018). The study showed that fitness was highly correlated with training-related injuries, even when accounting for body-mass index, age and race. Each recruit lost to injury costs the Department of Defense about $32,000. After gender, physical fitness is the strongest predictor of training-related injuries in the military.

In 2022, the U.S. National Physical Activity Plan added military settings as a new societal sector and described the military in its Report Card as an opportunity for physical activity promotion. Lawmakers, senior military leaders and scientists are questioning whether the U.S. can maintain an all-volunteer military as a competitive advantage due to growing rates of physical inactivity and obesity. At a 2022 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Lt. Gen. David Ottnigon testified that the past year has been “arguably the most challenging in recruiting history,” mainly due to candidates not meeting physical standards or having a criminal record.

Global competitiveness

Levels of physical activity inadequate to meet current guidelines are associated with a significant financial burden for the U.S. health care system, as much as $131 billion a year (CDC, 2015). Direct and indirect medical costs related to obesity are estimated at $147 billion a year, twice the size of the budget for the U.S. Department of Education. Direct costs are expected to more than double by 2030. Adults who are obese will face decreased earning potential, and employers will pay in the form increased health care costs (Designed to Move, 2012). In total, lifetime societal costs are $92,235 greater for a person with obesity, and if all 12.7 million U.S. youth with obesity became obese adults, the societal costs over their lifetimes may exceed $1.1 trillion (Brookings Institute, 2015).